Publications

It still remains to be seen to what extent the Trump administration´s policies will impact the US market for information and communication technology.

Despite overall growth, many French ICT companies face structurally low margins, price pressure and an on-going consolidation process in the market.

Due to limited organic growth opportunities and the on-going economic uncertainty, market players strive to expand through acquisitions and specialisation.

Despite continued sales growth, most German ICT businesses operate on very tight margins due to fierce competition and price erosion in most subsectors.

On average, payments in the ICT sector take between 30 and 90 days. Business culture promotes prompt payment, and therefore the number of delays is low.

Payment behaviour in the South Korean ICT sector has been good over the past two years, and the number of payment delays and insolvencies is low.

As in 2016 the ICT market remains characterised by high competition, single-digit margins, low entry barriers and stagnating growth in some segments.

The first hint of spring is in the air leaving this Economic Outlook in a position of cautious optimism.

After an increase of almost five percentage points in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Eastern Europe decreased again this year (41.5%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in the Czech Republic continued its downward trend. In 2017, the country’s payment default rate stood at 37%.

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Hungary decreased in 2017. At 29.7%, the payment default rate in the country is far under the regional average.

Overdue B2B invoices occurred more often with the domestic customers of our Polish respondents (41.0%) than with their foreign customers (36.6%).

The percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Slovakia decreased from 48.0% in 2016 to 41.5% this year. This is in line with the regional average (41.5%).

Compared to one year ago when 57.1% of B2B invoices were reported to be overdue in Turkey, the percentage has decreased slightly in 2017 to 55.9%.

High uncertainty surrounding NAFTA renegotiations and other US policy directions in international trade, and specifically targeting Mexico, could adversely affect sentiment and investment.

Despite higher economic growth rate of about 2% is expected in 2017, business insolvencies are forecast to increase again in 2017, by 3% year-on-year.

In 2017 the number of Belgian business insolvencies will still be much higher than the levels seen before the start of the global credit crisis in 2008.

The Danish economy has regained some of its international competitiveness due to structural reforms that addressed the issue of high labour costs.

With more than 58,000 cases in 2016 the number of business insolvencies was still about 5% higher than before the start of the credit crisis in 2008.

Private consumption remains a key driver of growth in 2017, sustained by higher household purchasing power and further decreasing unemployment figures.

The Irish economy is expected to grow by more than 3% in 2017, but remains highly exposed to economic uncertainties stemming from the Brexit decision.

Italy´s GDP growth is expected to remain subdued in 2017 as international competitiveness remains an issue and the banking sector is still under pressure.

Solid economic growth is expected to continue in 2017 and 2018, but the Brexit decision will most probably affect Dutch industries in the mid-term.

The economic rebound is forecast to remain robust in 2017, but the number of insolvencies will remain at an elevated level despite further decreases.

Sweden´s economic growth is expected to slow down in 2017 to about 2% year-on-year, while business insolvencies are forecast to increase slightly.

Despite rising Swiss exports in 2016, export-oriented businesses production costs had risen relative to their export prices, squeezing profit levels.

In times of increased uncertainty the 7% insolvency decrease expected in 2017 is mainly due to statistical adjustments, but not economic resilience.

2017 is a major election year in Europe. Election gains of populist parties could undermine support for European cooperation and threaten reforms.

The use of credit terms for B2B sales by respondents in Western Europe decreased slightly compared to 2016, stressing the challenging business environment.

There has been a modest increase in the percentage of overdue B2B invoices of Austrian respondents in 2017 (37.4%), compared to one year ago (36.3%).

Despite a strong aversion to granting trade credit to B2B customers, Belgium saw a modest increase in the use of credit- based transactions (31.8%).

The percentages of B2B sales on credit terms in Denmark (56.4%) are, as in previous years, significantly higher than in Western Europe overall (38.8%).

In 2017, 29.3% of B2B sales in France were made on credit, far less than the regional average of 38.9%. This is similar to what was observed last year.

In 2017, the total value of overdue B2B invoices in Germany (40.6%) is in line with the regional average (41.0%) and almost at the 2016 level (40.0%).

Compared to one year ago (31.5%), Greece has seen an increase of almost seven percentage points in the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in 2017 (38.6%).

After Denmark (56.4%) and Greece (52.1%), Ireland has the highest average of sales made on credit terms (48.2%) in the Western European countries surveyed.

Despite a decrease in 2017, the average value of B2B sales on credit in Italy (42.5%) is still higher than that registered in Western Europe (38.8%).

After a sharp increase in sales on credit terms in 2016 (55.8%), the total value of B2B sales on credit in Sweden decreased again this year (47.8%).

Among the Western European countries surveyed, respondents in Switzerland reported late payments most frequently (domestic: 97.0%; foreign: 93.9%).

After a slight decrease in sales on credit terms in 2016 (44.3%), the total value of B2B sales on credit in Great Britain increased again this year (45.7%).

Compared to the 2016 survey results there has been a reduction in the percentage of both domestic and foreign B2B sales made on credit in the Netherlands.

Compared to 2016, respondents in Spain sold less on credit terms, underlining the downward trend in sales on credit terms observed in previous surveys.

Payment behaviour of many Turkish businesses has deteriorated since 2015, and key sectors continue to face problems in 2017 due to increased uncertainty.

The current economic rebalancing efforts do not yet really support consumer durables retailing, as the saving rate of Chinese consumers remains high.

Further sales growth in 2017 is uncertain as consumer confidence could be affected by the outcome of the presidential and parliamentary elections.

Competition is high in all segments and price pressure offsets sales volume growth, meaning that the already low profit margins will remain under pressure.

2017 is expected to be challenging as the weaker pound is putting upward pressure on prices and growing uncertainty could affect consumer spending.

The 2017 retail sales outlook remains positive, due to robust private consumption driven by an improved housing market, job growth and higher wages.

Sales are expected to grow further in 2017, but smaller businesses are struggling to cope with the fast growing market leaders and online retailers.

Given the positive economic outlook for 2017 with household consumption forecast to increase above 3% , robust consumer durables sales growth is expected.