Publications

The outlook for 2018 remains subdued and the already low profit margins of many construction businesses are expected to deteriorate further in H1 of 2018.

While the market is still growing, increasing costs for construction materials and transport weigh on the performance of construction businesses.

Smaller contractors continue to suffer from tight cash flow and deteriorating margins due to a lack of projects and higher labour and rental costs.

Construction is expected to have high growth rates over the next five years, mainly due to large infrastructure projects driven by the government.

Canada's GDP growth is forecast to slow down to about 2% in 2018, due to a slowdown in private consumption and government spending.

Costa Rica’s GDP growth is expected to accelerate driven by private consumption, robust private, public and foreign investment, and further export growth.

Mexico seems to be quite resilient in dealing with the uncertainty brought by the NAFTA renegotiations due to its strong economic fundamentals.

Panama´s economy is small, very open, highly diversified, fully dollarized and highly competitive by regional standards. However, challenges remain.

The US administration´s trade policy remains a downside risk, not just for trading partners, but also for the US economy itself.

The economic recovery in emerging market economies is expected to continue strengthening in 2018 and these markets could present opportunities for business.

Due tot the inability to absorb higher input costs and increased pressure on margins, both payment delays and insolvencies have increased in 2017.

The outlook for the Brazilian food sector is benign, due to an ongoing economic rebound and robust demand from China as largest food export market.

Commodity price increases have added pressure on many food manufacturers, stuck between farmers demanding higher prices and powerful retail chains.

Average payment duration in the food sector is 40 days, and the amount of payment delays and insolvencies remains low compared to other Dutch industries.

As food processors and retailers demand longer payment terms from their suppliers, a wave of longer payment terms is being created along the supply chain.

The outlook for food exports remains positive, with further demand growth from overseas expected, due to the strong reputation of “Made in Italy” food.

Key challenges for food retailers are the increasingly competitive market environment and the very high wage pressure, which is diminishing profit margins.

A hard Brexit remains a major threat to the Irish food sector, despite ongoing efforts of food exporters to diversify shipments away from Britain.

The recent profit margin increase is expected to bottom out in the coming months due to a slowdown in inflation and increasing competition in food retail.

The average payment duration in the food industry is 60 days, and the number of payment delays remained low in 2017, with no increase expected in 2018.

Global economic momentum, which began picking up in H2 of 2016, has solidified through the year. However, now is not a time for complacency.

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

The steel and metals sector remains resilient for the time being, but the market environment is turning increasingly difficult with more downside risks.

Demand from construction and automotive as key buyer sectors has been robust in 2017, and steel price increases have been pushed through the supply chain.

While in general insolvencies are not expected to rise sharply, an increase in business failures in Puerto Rico and the Houston area cannot be ruled out.

Both the rebound of steel and metals prices and increased domestic demand have helped to improve margins in 2017, which nevertheless remain tight.

Export orientation and diversification are key factors for business success in a business environment characterised by overcapacity and volatile prices.

Due to a high non-performing assets level banks remain reluctant to provide loans, and external financing at competitive conditions remains a challenge.

While the profit margin development is generally stable competition remains high with Asian steel and metals businesses on international markets.

While the outlook for late 2017 and 2018 remains positive, due to overcapacity there is on-going price pressure in most segments, affecting margins.

Production has increased again in 2017, but competitiveness of the domestic steel and metals industry remains negatively impacted by high power costs.

Payment experience has been good over the past two years, and steel and metals insolvencies decreased in 2016, with a stable outlook for 2017 and 2018.

Banks have generally tightened their lending policies for steel businesses due to the fierce competitive environment and still subdued domestic demand.

Revenues of the engineering services industry have rebounded since 2015 as greater liquidity in financial markets helped to boost construction spending.

While UK business insolvencies are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018, the machinery sector is not expected to follow this deteriorating trend.

Lower demand from key buyer industries and high overcapacity has led to decreasing net profit margins for some businesses over the last two years.

Profit margins have increased over the last 12 months due to the benign business environment, however, a slight decline cannot be ruled out in the future.

Profit margins of machinery businesses rebounded in 2016 and are expected to improve further, but competition remains strong in the domestic market.

As competition is fierce in the domestic market price wars cannot be ruled out, particularly among businesses operating in the lower quality segment.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses remains their ability to streamline costs and investment in product development/new technology.

The general outlook remains positive, and margins are relatively high, especially in niche segments. However,competition from China is increasing.

Payment behaviour has been good over the last two years and the number of payment delays, defaults and insolvencies is expected to remain low in 2017.

Due to deteriorated results and margins, as well as increased payment delays and insolvencies our underwriting stance remains restrictive for the sector.

After a minor decrease from 45.0% in 2015 to 44.3% in 2016, the percentage of overdue B2B invoices in Asia Pacific increased again this year to 45.4%.

China’s proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices is almost in line with the regional average and has increased compared to last year.

The proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices in Taiwan (domestic: 42.7%; foreign: 47.2%) is almost in line with the regional averages.

The proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices in Hong Kong (domestic: 50.0%; foreign: 50.3%) is higher than that recorded at regional level.

With an average of 53.4%, India had the highest proportion of domestic and foreign past due B2B invoices of all the Asia Pacific countries surveyed.

The percentage of Australian respondents reporting domestic and foreign late payments in 2017 (88.1%) has increased compared to last year (84.0%).

In 2017, Indonesian respondents reported an increased percentage of domestic and foreign overdue B2B invoices (domestic: 45.1% and foreign: 41.2%).