Publications

With about 55,000 business failures recorded in 2017 the number of insolvencies was still as high as during the start of the credit crisis in 2008.

Economic expansion remains broad-based, driven by private consumption and business investments, while export growth is sustained by the eurozone demand.

The Irish economy is expected to grow by about 4% in 2018, but remains exposed to ongoing economic uncertainties stemming from the Brexit decision.

Despite a forecast 10% year-on-year decrease in 2018 the number of business insolvencies will still be much higher than the levels registered in 2008.

A potential downside risk would be another deterioration in house prices, given high levels of mortgage debt and banks’ exposure to the housing market.

In 2018 and 2019 economic growth is expected to moderate somewhat but to remain robust, with private consumption and investment remaining the key drivers.

A potential downside risk to the economic performance could be the high household debt in case of sharp house price decreases and interest rate increases.

With the rebound of economic growth, business failures are expected to decrease year-on-year in 2018, but nevertheless to remain on an elevated level.

British business insolvencies are expected to rise again in 2018, mainly affecting businesses active in the construction, retail and hospitality sectors.

The global economic upswing continues to strengthen but US policy uncertainty and a potential trade war could quickly darken the bright skies.

While the return to more market friendly policies has improved Argentina´s medium- and long-term growth prospects, significant downside risks remain.

Despite a rebound, the economic environment remains challenging due to a fragile political landscape, high unemployment, and fiscal policy issues.

Since H2 of 2017 economic growth has recovered from low copper prices and lower demand from China, strikes in the mining sector and weaker domestic demand.

Since H2 of 2017 GDP growth has started to accelerate again, due to a more supportive external environment and the effects of monetary policy stimulus.

In a highly competitive and fragmented market retailers’ profit margins are expected to remain under pressure in 2018 after deteriorating in 2017.

Consumer durables are expected to continue their sales expansion in 2018, although at a lower pace than in 2017 as private consumption growth slows.

In 2018 sales are expected to be affected by slower household spending growth, triggered by a weaker housing market and subdued growth in household income.

The profit margins of Indian non-food retailers are expected to moderate in 2018 due to growing competition and the rising market share of e-commerce.

Despite good sales prospects, there remains substantial uncertainty related to VAT tax issues amongst retailers as tax controls have been intensified.

Indonesia's retail sector is one of the most promising in Asia, on the back of its large population and growing middle class with higher purchasing power.

The short-term outlook is benign with private consumption expected to increase by more than 6% in 2018, but higher inflation could have a dampening effect.

The best way for smaller retailers to survive is to join a large purchasing association and to compete with e-commerce by providing outstanding service.

As a result of more difficult trading conditions retailers profit margins have deteriorated in H2 of 2017, and further decline is expected in 2018.

The business environment is highly competitive among the different distribution networks, reinforced by the increasing market share of online retailers.

Many long-standing retail chains are highly indebted, often from leveraged buyouts led by private equity firms, while investors reconsider further lending.

The number of brick-and-mortar stores has significantly decreased - despite the fact that high street also benefits from the current sales increase.

The growing insecurity over US trade policy pushes the European Union and trading partners to speed up the completion of free trade agreement negotiations

By raising tariffs on steel and aluminium the US president has proudly delivered on a campaign promise. US steel and aluminium producers gain, but it comes at the expense of US metal consuming firms.

Business insolvencies in China are expected to increase further this year in 2018, as companies face tighter credit conditions and the economic rebalancing process is on-going.

The economic growth outlook for 2018 remains robust, but a rather weak banking sector and high foreign indebtedness of domestic firms remain concerns.

The economic outlook remains positive with expected GDP growth rates of more than 5% in 2017 and 2018, and vulnerability to external shocks has declined.

Growth has picked up again in 2017, and the positive trend is expected to continue in 2018, with both domestic demand and exports set to grow further.

The economy shows high growth rates of more than 5% p.a., but high household debt could become an issue should interest rates increase substantially.

GDP growth is expected to remain at above 6% in 2018, but controversial economic policies could hamper business sentiment and foreign investment.

In 2018 the economic performance will be impacted by weaker demand from China and lower domestic demand due to weaker residential construction activity.

The high level of household debt remains a downside risk for the economy, together with a tougher competition from China in a range of industries.

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

The Thai economy is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2018, supported by public investments in infrastructure, rising household consumption and exports.

High GDP growth of more than 6% in expected in 2018 driven by domestic demand and exports, but the economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses.

The global economy is in a sweet spot of broad-based economic growth and low interest rates, but we expect this to be bottoming out in 2018.

Despite higher prices, debt levels continue to rise in many energy exporters. Now is no time for complacency.

Improvements in business performance and credit risk seen in 2017 and the stable outlook for 2018 have led to a performance rating upgrade to “Fair”.

The sector still suffers from fierce competition with prices and profitability at a low level, while major players keep putting pressure on subcontractors.

Tight lending conditions set by banks still hamper sector performance, exacerbating the fact that many construction businesses remain highly geared.

Brexit will undoubtedly impact on the construction market in the coming years, as the industry is very susceptible to shifts in investor confidence.

Banks remain rather cautious in providing loans to the industry due to the large number of insolvencies and generally volatile market demand situation.

Construction expansion is set to continue, underpinned by robust economic growth, with building businesses profit margins expected to remain stable.

The profit and loss accounts of businesses active in energy-intensive segments (e.g. cement) are negatively affected by elevated electricity and gas costs.

While mining-related activity could decline further the prospects for growth in other parts of engineering and non-residential construction are improving.

Payments take 60-120 days on average and the payment behaviour has been rather bad over the past two years, with a high level of protracted payments.