Publications

Global economic momentum, which began picking up in H2 of 2016, has solidified through the year. However, now is not a time for complacency.

Overcapacity remains the main challenge, as the rebalancing of the economy from investment and export-driven growth towards private consumption continues.

The steel and metals sector remains resilient for the time being, but the market environment is turning increasingly difficult with more downside risks.

Demand from construction and automotive as key buyer sectors has been robust in 2017, and steel price increases have been pushed through the supply chain.

While in general insolvencies are not expected to rise sharply, an increase in business failures in Puerto Rico and the Houston area cannot be ruled out.

Both the rebound of steel and metals prices and increased domestic demand have helped to improve margins in 2017, which nevertheless remain tight.

Export orientation and diversification are key factors for business success in a business environment characterised by overcapacity and volatile prices.

Due to a high non-performing assets level banks remain reluctant to provide loans, and external financing at competitive conditions remains a challenge.

While the profit margin development is generally stable competition remains high with Asian steel and metals businesses on international markets.

While the outlook for late 2017 and 2018 remains positive, due to overcapacity there is on-going price pressure in most segments, affecting margins.

Production has increased again in 2017, but competitiveness of the domestic steel and metals industry remains negatively impacted by high power costs.

Payment experience has been good over the past two years, and steel and metals insolvencies decreased in 2016, with a stable outlook for 2017 and 2018.

Banks have generally tightened their lending policies for steel businesses due to the fierce competitive environment and still subdued domestic demand.

Revenues of the engineering services industry have rebounded since 2015 as greater liquidity in financial markets helped to boost construction spending.

While UK business insolvencies are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018, the machinery sector is not expected to follow this deteriorating trend.

Lower demand from key buyer industries and high overcapacity has led to decreasing net profit margins for some businesses over the last two years.

Profit margins have increased over the last 12 months due to the benign business environment, however, a slight decline cannot be ruled out in the future.

Profit margins of machinery businesses rebounded in 2016 and are expected to improve further, but competition remains strong in the domestic market.

As competition is fierce in the domestic market price wars cannot be ruled out, particularly among businesses operating in the lower quality segment.

Key success factors for Danish machinery businesses remains their ability to streamline costs and investment in product development/new technology.