Publications

The economic outlook remains positive with expected GDP growth rates of more than 5% in 2017 and 2018, and vulnerability to external shocks has declined.

Growth has picked up again in 2017, and the positive trend is expected to continue in 2018, with both domestic demand and exports set to grow further.

The economy shows high growth rates of more than 5% p.a., but high household debt could become an issue should interest rates increase substantially.

GDP growth is expected to remain at above 6% in 2018, but controversial economic policies could hamper business sentiment and foreign investment.

In 2018 the economic performance will be impacted by weaker demand from China and lower domestic demand due to weaker residential construction activity.

The high level of household debt remains a downside risk for the economy, together with a tougher competition from China in a range of industries.

Growing competition from mainland China in the electronics sector require productivity increases and a diversification of the economy in the long-term.

The Thai economy is forecast to grow by 3.8% in 2018, supported by public investments in infrastructure, rising household consumption and exports.

High GDP growth of more than 6% in expected in 2018 driven by domestic demand and exports, but the economic fundamentals still show some weaknesses.

The global economy is in a sweet spot of broad-based economic growth and low interest rates, but we expect this to be bottoming out in 2018.

Despite higher prices, debt levels continue to rise in many energy exporters. Now is no time for complacency.

Improvements in business performance and credit risk seen in 2017 and the stable outlook for 2018 have led to a performance rating upgrade to “Fair”.

The sector still suffers from fierce competition with prices and profitability at a low level, while major players keep putting pressure on subcontractors.

Tight lending conditions set by banks still hamper sector performance, exacerbating the fact that many construction businesses remain highly geared.

Brexit will undoubtedly impact on the construction market in the coming years, as the industry is very susceptible to shifts in investor confidence.

Banks remain rather cautious in providing loans to the industry due to the large number of insolvencies and generally volatile market demand situation.

Construction expansion is set to continue, underpinned by robust economic growth, with building businesses profit margins expected to remain stable.

The profit and loss accounts of businesses active in energy-intensive segments (e.g. cement) are negatively affected by elevated electricity and gas costs.

While mining-related activity could decline further the prospects for growth in other parts of engineering and non-residential construction are improving.

Payments take 60-120 days on average and the payment behaviour has been rather bad over the past two years, with a high level of protracted payments.